Prymula: There may be 50,000 cases a day, then there will be no one to infect
Prymula: Může být i 50 tisíc případů denně, pak už nebude koho nakazit
How do you look at the Covidal numbers?On Thursday, 27,717 newly infected, which is the most sovereign from the beginning of the pandemic.When and where do you estimate that we will stop?
There is a certain slowing of the exponential curve, because if it was the same pace as the reproductive number of 1.4, we would already see a daily increase of around 30 thousand.
But the slowdown is still so mild and slight, because the positivity of the tests, the second major indicator, is still very high, at forty.This means that we are still growing.I think we can get somewhere up to 40 to 50 thousand newly infected per day.
PŘEHLEDNĚ: Jaká opatření od pátku platíKoronavirusWe are already on significantly higher numbers infected than the largest spring wave.At that time everyone was worried about hospitals.Now there are almost 900 patients in the ICU, then it was two thousand, but the current high increases will only be manifested in hospitals.Do you expect overflowing hospitals now?
The risk is quite large, because now the epidemic is moving from Moravia to Bohemia.When I see capacities in our hospitals, they really go down.There are plenty of patients and the capacity begins to vacuum.Unfortunately, there is a risk, although huge numbers of diagnosed do not correspond to the degree of severity, as was the case in autumn or spring waves.
For vaccination.
Yes, for vaccination.Yet, because of this, there is a risk that we can get there.First, there is some latency of clinical manifestations, which is from units of days to ten days.If we stay on this issue, projections to hospitals will grow in the next few days.
I bez nějakých velkých opatření ta vlna půjde dolů, protože nebude moci nakazit další nové jedince, protože ti se už nakazili dříve.If we add all this, we will be on the values that the system will be quite burdening, probably faster than I had predicted.These will be around fifteen hundred patients, where there is really a problem with patient distribution and locally produce shortcomings of beds that must be solved by transport to a device where some free capacity is.
A few months ago, you claimed that there could be three million people in the Czech Republic who have undergone Covid.There would be more of them now.We have 6.3 million citizens with finished vaccination.Where do you all get involved?The space is no longer so big.
There are two problems.The vaccine has a really lower efficiency in the long -term point of view than expected, but this is largely due to the fact that we simply use the vaccine for a completely different type of virus than we now have.If a vaccine was used to correspond to the delta, I think that efficiency would be significantly higher.
Teď je vidět pokles kontaktů, protože část populace se už poměrně značně obává, snaží se očkovat a souvisí to s těmi kontakty. Proto si myslím, že přijde doba, kdy jedinci, kteří se nechtějí očkovat a chtějí pořád být s lidmi v kontaktu, tak mezi nimi ta nákaza za chvíli proběhne.In this situation, after six months it is really dramatically down.It is obvious that many people who are sick even after vaccination are people who have not managed to give a third dose, or they had it five or ten days ago and have not yet managed to respond in any way.
Kdo zaplňuje nemocnice a JIPDomácí
And the second thing is that we got into a situation that people thought about, and I objectively say that I also thought we would not get into such numbers and follow some elementary rules.But there was basically nothing at all, and the contacts were so intense that much more people were infected in the smaller pool of people than it would be needed in a controlled process.Until recently, we went here, practically until a few days ago, a way that almost naturally spread the virus in the population.
Now you can see a decline in contacts, because part of the population is already quite fearing, trying to vaccinate, and it is related to those contacts.Therefore, I think that there will be a time when individuals who do not want to vaccinate and want to be in contact with people, so the infection will take place in a moment.So even without any major measures, the wave will go down because it will not be able to infect other new individuals, because they have been infected before.
Do you think that this caused this wave could happen, or will it be repeated next fall?
This wave is really powerful, so I think it could be in this.
Is it the biggest wave that has met us so far?Despite the vaccination?
Yippee.
The government introduces new measures.For example, restrictions on restaurant opening hours up to 22 hours or a ban on Christmas markets.Is it sufficient?Will these measures work?After all, some of them have already applied in the past and apparently the effect was not quite general.
It should be remembered that virtually all measures have already been used on the laboratory around the world.These are measures that are able to move the reproductive number in hundredths, perhaps small tenths.
If there is an epidemic on such numbers and with the reproductive number, for example, 1.4, then it is questionable if we can return to a quiet state quickly enough.This is an eternal controversy between making a really flat and fast measure, or adding different smaller measures by salami method.
V lockdownu osaměli a začali pít, ordinace teď na nával závislých nestačíDomácíIf we free ourselves from the Czech Republic and say it in general, it turns out that fast and harder measures are more effective than longer, salami measures, ie added to certain parts.
When I take your designation, what the government is doing now corresponds to the salami method.It will work?
Now he is already seeing the prediction.Unfortunately, they are not taken into account by predictions that are in the horizon need for one month.This seems to be an incredibly distant time.But now we are getting into predictions that are in a matter of days and one to two weeks, and you can see that there is not much to do in this epidemic.Now the development has undoubtedly attracted serious attention, and therefore the steps that are taken are of course significantly more fundamental than the previous ones.
You are known to be a supporter of rather harder measures.If you were Minister of Health, what would you suggest that the epidemic is more suppressed?Do you evaluate some measures as unnecessary?
Now it is necessary to say that it is no longer easy, whether the government is outgoing or the coming.The measures simply come to the polarized society, and some take it as an expression of their personal opinion and fight those measures.This always leads to the fact that the measures will not be dramatically effective.
ÚZIS odmítl dát senátorce covidová data. „Dobrá žádost, poskytneme je,“ hájí se DušekDomácíWhat I welcome is the effort to somehow control the measures and sanction their non -compliance, because without it we would get here in the situation that it is not worth it.Because some mock this and the state rather cannot be checked so that it does not have a problem.And when we look at Austria or Australia, there are really significant fines.It wakes up some passion at the beginning, but then it calms down and it works in some way.So this is a thing that is essential that goes across all measures.
So, in your opinion, is the inspection of adherence to measures and sanctions?
Sure.Then you can invent millions of measures and it doesn't work.The question is whether to make a number of such minor measures, or not to take more favorable measures with a greater impact.
The second thing is that the legislation here was really set up unhappy.Without an emergency that I thought would not be necessary, virtually general measures cannot be taken.
Another thing that is not fully accepted is the question of contacts vaccinated with unvaccins.It is clearly verified that the vaccinated vacant can spread the infection and therefore there should be measures at least in relation to seniors or vulnerable populations so that they cannot be infected.The primary measure at the moment is to eliminate the contacts of seniors at the moment, as they increase the lining of hospitals.
Kdo zaplňuje nemocnice a JIPDomácíAs I mentioned, one of the implemented measures is the ban on Christmas markets, which comes when it is already starting.The marketers have prepared for it, often put their savings in it - and there will be nothing.In doing so, large shops remain open, where those people will meet anyway.Do you find this measure okay?
The measure should have a head and a heel.Therefore, I say that than do it so selectively, which logically leads to a number of mistakes, so better to do it in some more general way.If the markets are out, the problem should not be big.
Is it already Lockdown?Many experts say this, although we are largely vaccinated.
Lockdown should only be considered in a situation where there will be a clear prediction that the capacity of hospitals will be exceeded within fourteen days.Then there will be a locdown on the spot, not in another case.
Looking back at your own statements and predictions, can you evaluate it back?What did you think and it did?
There was more.Even then it was obvious that the virus was much worse than we might have thought, and is able to make processes that standard viruses could not.
If we compare it to Ebola, unfortunately, we could handle these infections much better than this virus, which at first glance looks like "worse flu", and yet it can decimate us worldwide.
What we did not know completely, so it was said that the ability of this virus mutation was quite limited, that it is a relatively conservative virus.Then various mutations began to be captured, including delta, which changed the view of the virus itself.Its spread proved to be significantly faster.Basically, the virus was able to eliminate some of the steps that were taken against him, and basically returned to the power that was as if we did nothing.
AnketaNecháte se očkovat třetí dávkou?Ano55.6 %Ne11.2 %Vůbec se nenechám očkovat33.2 %Celkemhlasovalo6430čtenářů.| Další informace o koronaviru |
| Omikron: Příznaky, možná rizika, a účinnost vakcín |
| Novela pandemického zákona: Seznam změn |
| Koronavirus a Česko: Mapa nakažených a hospitalizovaných v obcích a městech |
| Třetí dávka: Kde se registrovat a kam se jít očkovat |
| Očkování: Počty a ochrana |
| Vývoj hospitalizovaných v ČR |
| Aktuální opatření: respirátory, testování, služby, karanténa |
| Co je chřipcovid: Souběh chřipky a covidu představuje nebezpečí |
| Jak zjistit, zda máte protilátky |
| Pozitivní i bez testu a čipování lidí. Co jsou nejrozšířenější dezinformace o covidu? |
| Jak si nesplést běžné nachlazení s koronavirem |
| Virus zaútočil, když klesla vzdušná vlhkost, zjistil vědec |
Tags:
